La diversificazione del tuo portafoglio investimenti ti permetterà di aumentare i rendimenti a parità di rischio. Ma occorre prendere distacco da quello che è successo nel 2018, perché – nonostante le apparenze – la diversificazione funziona ancora.
Che Cosa è la Diversificazione
La diversificazione di portafoglio è molto di più di un detto popolare. “Non mettere tutte le uova in un solo cesto” ti permetterà di migliorare i rendimenti dei tuoi risparmi, a patto che tu faccia le cose per bene.
Il concetto di diversificazione non si basa sull’ipotesi di avere “tanti” investimenti sul conto titoli, quanto sull’avere il giusto mix di investimenti. Una diversificazione fatta bene implica che i rendimenti dei titoli che compongono il portafoglio non si muovano tutti nella stessa direzione contemporaneamente.
Ecco perché puoi avere un portafoglio molto “frammentato” ma non diversificato, o un portafoglio con pochi strumenti finanziari ma molto diversificato. La misura della bontà della tua diversificazione sta in un numerino, che si chiama coefficiente di correlazione.
Cos’è e Cosa Misura il Coefficiente di Correlazione
Il coefficiente di correlazione è un numero, compreso tra – 1 e +1 che misura il grado di interdipendenza tra due variabili. In finanza esso esprime la modalità con cui azioni e obbligazioni si muovono le une rispetto alle altre.
Coefficiente di correlazione uguale a meno uno
E’ il caso migliore, anche se difficilmente si verifica.
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In questo caso, infatti, se il rendimento di un titolo cresce, l’altro decresce nella stessa misura e il portafoglio sale in modo costante. Immagina ad esempio di avere due titoli, con un coefficiente di correlazione uguale a -1.
Il primo rende il 5%, il secondo il 3%. Il rendimento medio del tuo portafoglio è del 4%. Se il primo accelera ed il suo rendimento passa dal 5 al 9%, il secondo passerà da 3 a meno uno. Alla fine il rendimento del tuo portafoglio resterà costante al 4%.
In presenza di un coefficiente di correlazione pari a meno uno il portafoglio cresce stabilmente al suo tasso medio, come se si trattasse di un conto deposito.
Coefficiente di Correlazione Pari a Zero
In questo caso i due titoli si muovono in modo indipendente. Si parla di “indipendenza stocastica“, poiché non è possibile sapere quale sarà l’impatto della diversificazione sul portafoglio.
Ciò che sappiamo è che in questo caso è possibile minimizzare il rischio finanziario complessivo, ma ancora una volta siamo in una ipotesi poco realistica.
Coefficiente di Correlazione Compreso tra Zero e 1
Nella realtà operativa il coefficiente di correlazione è un numero compreso tra zero e uno. Un valore pari all’unità implica che la diversificazione non riduce il rischio. I tuoi investimenti avranno una rischiosità pari alla loro media, senza alcun “abbattimento” provocato dalla diversificazione.
Un coefficiente inferiore a uno implica che la diversificazione in effetti riduce i rischi complessivi del portafoglio, anche se in misura minore rispetto alla presenza di “decorrelazione”, ossia di coefficiente negativo.
Cosa è accaduto nel 2018
Nel 2018, per una serie di ragioni che non sto a spiegare, il 90% degli investimenti ha riportato un andamento negativo. Questo ha portato molti a concludere che la diversificazione non esiste più e che occorre “inventare qualche cosa di nuovo”.
Nulla di più sbagliato.
I coefficiente di correlazione cambiano nel tempo, per cui due attività finanziarie possono attraversare delle fasi negative, in cui le correlazioni crescono. Tuttavia, se hai fatto le cose per bene, nel tempo i coefficienti di correlazione si stabilizzeranno e il portafoglio risulterà ottimizzato.
La cosa importante è sapere come investire in modo sicuro costruendo portafogli adeguatamente diversificati per il lungo periodo (5 o più anni).
Come Investire in Modo Sicuro e Redditizio con la Diversificazione
Tradizionalmente le classi di investimenti meno correlate sono le azioni, le obbligazioni e l’oro. Come ti ho detto il numerino associato ai coefficienti cambia nel tempo, ma un portafoglio che contenga queste tre forme di investimento è senza dubbio un portafoglio equilibrato.
Azioni e obbligazioni si comportano in modo diverso a seconda del punto del ciclo economico, e in risposta a variazioni nei tassi di interesse. L’oro si muove in modo slegato dalle azioni perché è visto per lo più come un bene rifugio.
Non ci sono ricette pronte e valide per tutti, ma con un po’ di pratica riuscirai a costruire il tuo portafoglio adeguatamente diversificato.
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